Whitecroc: I'm not sure. Joakim Mogren is actually a very common Swedish name. Considering it's a stealth/survival horror title they might just be using the character design as a homage. The negative spacing people are talking about it extremely tenuous in my eyes, too.
I might be completely wrong and it will turn out that it's an incredibly clever marketing campaign, but I'm not holding my breath. We already have two Metal Gears on the way as it is.
Oh, yeah, and their site is in Swedish when accessed from here. That's not the sort of thing one would normally do if it was just an outsourced project.
Even in English, their site is sparse, to say the least. However, from the general look and feel of the footage it pretty much screams "Metal Gear" to me, even down to the taglines interspersing the video, (e.g. "Something is coming!") which reminds me a lot of awkward Japanese-English text translations that always come with an MGS trailer. The last bit with focus on "Snake's" face pretty much was a dead giveaway, much like the last bit at the end of the Japanese trailer for Star Trek: Into Darkness.
My take on it is that it's Kojima putting up an elaborate viral marketing campaign to once more push up the buzz for this game. It'd actually be really surprising if this ended up being a stand-alone game that had nothing to do at all with MGS.
Also - it seems like they ended up giving the Lara Croft treatment to Solid Snake. I wonder if the whole game will end up with nothing but Snake screaming and grunting as he's tossed about from explosion to explosion? Don't know if I'd want to see a grizzled soldier feel him up, though.