So much this. If we actually talk it out we are more likely to find scum as they will fall through the cracks the longer they have to participate.


I think everyone wants to lynch flub just because he's flub LOL. A few people have said they are only 90% sure flub is town, but I don't think ZFR would put a player in the game and confirm them as town but they are really scum. I don't think we have a character like JMich in the game as a Town Bodyguard, if we do I think my head might explode.

Super-Post Deploy:

Huh?

Poppy's suggestion was that the possible vig not kill anyone on the first night as a signal that there's a vig.

Therefore if we have a SK who decides not to kill on the first night, the conclusion Poppy would have drawn is that there's a vig. I was suggesting that if Poppy WAS a SK she may have made the suggestion as a set up to make the town think there's a vig.

What non-sequitur?

Well it's not my first instrument...

I find that interesting. As far as I'm aware I've defended Poppy on one point only and I was criticism of the argument, not defence of the person.

A very good defence of flub. Of course, you're aware that now you've made this argument you aren't allowed to stop mentioning it because that would be distancing.

You see how silly that is? The fact that I didn't keep going on about something doesn't mean my position on it has changed, it was just a lack of any more to say on the matter.

So do we all need to make sure to reiterate our views in every single post or can we assume that when someone doesn't say something, it means their position hasn't changed?

Please see above comments. :P

But it is a distraction. It's a complete waste if our innocent child spends the entire game throwing around accusations that he refuses to back up. I'm not trying to convince anyone he's scum, I'm trying to get him to actually be helpful.

You are right that I'm letting this distract me too much though. I think Vitek's our better lynch (key being the weird vig instruction from Poppy), but I would support the scene-wagon.

Vote VippyAppletek

It's about 24 hours to the "day could end at any time" phase. I'll be on at some point this evening but that's probably it in terms of actual reading. Hopefully I'll be able to check the thread at lunch tomorrow but probably only to see what the game state is and change vote if necessary. I'll be busy all afternoon and since the deadline is 2pm there's a possibility I won't be around for EoD.

ok. I got cold feet and did a quick skim of your posts last game back when I was still alive in that game, because I was pretty sure you said something like that last game, but all I found was this:

https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_54_pokemon_death_tournament/post453"] To lynch her would be wasting our lynch, though, and it is exactly what I would call low-hanging fruit.
It gives us no information whatsoever and we'd be basically doing mods work at expense of 1 Day.
Sure, she may flip mafia, but it wil be mostly just random chance of hit. [/url]

So I guess I have to retract my statement, you never said we should try and lynch those that give us the most information, but only said we shouldn't lynch people that won't give us any information (like absent players/lurkers).
Sorry about that. I wasn't intending to misrepresent, I just seem to have faulty memory.

As for your chain mislynching argument. It's a good one and I have to think about it. I still find lift comes out looking scummy from his interaction with poppy, but any kind of chain (mis)lynching should be avoided. Still, don't you find it enervating to not follow up on the agitator if the wrong (ie town) partner of an argument got lynched? Like with zfr/lift last game. It's much more likely that when two big wagons end of Day 1 have one with scum on it, that the other one get's lynched, because no reason for scum to bus on D1. So I think we should think real hard about lynching the other lead wagon on D2... hmm, not if it's Tvs.T of course ... I'll need to read up on a few games to know if it's common for Scum to have the second highest wagon on them D2 or if it's just happened this once (twice if you count #53)

----

scene or vitek likely scum eh.
SPF, Joe and myself in the better than no-one pile.
trent, dedo, hsl and of course flub are townread

That leaves: gogtrial, bookwyrm, dessimu ... Into which Pile do you sort them?


Yes, it is. Because it _IS_ much harder making arguments when you can't be sure of anything. You should try it some time, maybe you don't remember anymore :P

not true. As I understood Poppy she said if we have two kills N1 then (should the possible vig listen to her) we can assume we have a SK. that's it.
She has not said anything about what to assume if we only have 1 kill. Nor did she say we should assume we have a Vig if we only have 1 nk. You said that. But it's non sequitur because from only having one NK we can't follow that we have a vig, we don't learn any hard info from that.

No, I never said anyone could draw hard conclusions. But by setting up the assumption that two NKs means a SK, it naturally follows that one can point to a single night kill as being indicative of there being a vig.

Quoted again here for reference:

This plan weights the conclusions people might draw from a second NK (or lack thereof), possibly in order to manipulate opinion tomorrow.
It also strikes me as somewhat redundant, as I think N1 would be a bit of a reckless point for a vig to start shooting people (but maybe that's just me).
All in all, the whole thing gives me bad marimbas.

Into the 'not decided yet' pile. Dessimu is quite absent, but he has a good RL reason for that. His first two posts looked a bit weird, but that's it. Bookwyrm was quite lurky too but is present now and I want to read a bit more from him before I put him in some pile. gogtrial seems neutral and I see no reason to lynch him. So, after going over what he wrote so far again, I'd put him in the 'don't lynch' pile.

With which she warned a potential SK not to kill anybody in N1. However, I don't think that that was her intention. I also don't really read it as a preparation for a Vig claim but rather as an attempt to look useful (again), by stating something obvious.

But since you like defending Poppy, perhaps you could explain what makes her so towny in your eyes.
- was it the way she flip-flopped between 'I have a solid read' and 'oh, it's only a gut feeling after all'?
- the fact that she would have liked to lynch the only confirmed towny for personal reasons?
- the OMGUS vote where even she herself felt the need to point out that it wasn't meant as OMGUS?
- the 'I don't want do distract and I know that what I write here is a distraction. But I still write it' post?

To me, all of that looks either like bad play or like scummy play. I still read her as scummy and I'm still saying we should either lynch her slot (Vitek) or Scene. Since lynching one will possibly tell us something about the other and I see a good chance that these two are a team. ... And maybe you're the third one? Was that why you tried to shift the attention away from both of them?

Perhaps your just a towny on the wrong track. But your LAMIST post still looks scummy. Even though you defend it by repeating to claim that you are town. But town should never knowingly propose a mislynch and IF you are town you do exactly that with I think if you actually were town, you wouldn't feel the need to offer yourself as the next mis-lynch in the case of the proposed lynch being a mis-lynch. You would know that that would be bad for town. No, this statement really reeks of "Look at me! I am even willing to sacrifice myself! See how towny I am?!" In other words, it is a very scummy statement. All in all I hereby promote you from the 'better than nobody' slot to the third place in my personal 'probably scum' list.

I see it! you put lift twice... Am I right? :p


Why so eager? There's 24 hours till deadline still!

Argh!


No, actually, I was also scum in game #16, game #18 - hay WAYTAMMINIT!


I prefer lists that include everybody - it helps avoid creating DOLs, and prevents lurkers from being out-of-mind. I also like the idea that on mafia flips we can look back at how they constructed their lists and try and make something from that. Some people feel like having to read a bunch of irrelevant and useless waffle is 'boring' and 'not a game', but I say those people have no resilience!

yes yes yes it could be that, somebody else mentioned recently something, maybe the same thing, maybe not. Hopefully I've got it in one of my tabs.


well when you put it like THAT of course it seems unreasonable!


Where does the example come from? I think I read it as a description of your own play - is that right? What's the answer you want from Spaff?
But I guess I was interested in it because I thought you were talking in terms of town-tells, and if you aren't it loses some of its intrigue.


Which Vite-

aww...


OHO! That's an interesting discovery!



Thanks!

... hm I read that one and it wasn't as illuminating as I'd hoped. I'm feeling a bit stuck.

...

Mass claim anyone?


Is that money on Lift being scum, or money on Lift to get lynched?


my goodness isn't that a compelling thought...

Sounds like you’re admitting to being scum this game.

yeah that's right! Me and gogtrial are on a team togeth- hay WAYTAMMINIT!!!

Because I hate cramming all voting in the last few hours. That's a very bad habit around here which gives scum far too much freedom in voting without giving good reasons for their votes. 'I'd rather vote anyone than risk no-lynch' is a far too easy argument to make. Especially since town does the same under time pressure - and is making bad lynch decisions in the process. So, waiting until shortly before deadline before voting is very, very bad for town!

So, why shouldn't I be eager? Would you prefer that we wait until the deadline and go to the usual panic-voting with a side order of risk of no-lynch?


No.

Mods is it worth checking with Dessimu if he's still playing??

I think there potentially could be 4 Scum players on my Wagon yourself included. If there is higher number of Scum they could take a high risk strategy and create wagons with their numbers. If you think about it everyone had a different reason for voting for me. Just look at the way the wagon grew at haste.

And that includes you ofcourse. While you maybe Town, why keep asking the bandwagon man the same questions as if you expect some huge insight on 1 or 2 throwaway comments amongst the reems and reems of posting I've made??? This looks sort of Scummy. Maybe you genuinely think you've seen something but why I know not. Is it because?

Joe voted me on the first page randomly, yet he's still on my wagon now. Why? Although if anything maybe he's the none Scum player as targeting a busier player.

Trent's reasoning was way off. First he votes Poppy and then I make an analysis of Poppy where I noted Poppy's suspicious behaviour. Then Trent and Lift claim I look Scummy for not explaining my Poppy vote. Yet this is my prior analysis on post 107 before my vote on 120:

Poppy - has had the most heat for allegedly distracting Town by focusing on Mafia numbers. Hinted at 'seeing something' with HSL and then seemingly backed away from it. Flub and I thought she hinted at the Bulletproof role. Others think it was a throwaway comment. Now she's posted that Town shouldn't over analyse because it isn't possible real time and isn't fun. She thinks Lift is playing his Scummy game. But is that townee play? I'm not sure


Are Trent and Lift Scummy voting because I didn't explain when that explanation is there? You jump on the train for (and correct me if I'm wrong) for this reason and because of saying Poppy had good analysis? Also Trent's analysis isn't at all deep but I didn't think it was in the last game where he was town.

SPF also asked about my posting style. In a prior game Lift when Scum explained 'this is his posting style'. He hasn't in this game, when if you view it, it absolutely is. Can you answer this @LIFT Is that because he's got a townee comfortably on a wagon?

I think it's time to update my VOTE LIFT. I was initially torn between Poppy and Lift. I still am, it could even have been distancing because if we find out one is Scum, we'll asume the other is not.

You have to theorise who may or may not be Scum. If Trent is also town he can't be sure I'm Town. Maybe I've thrown too much

Wait when did I say I know whether anyone was town or not? I didn't, I've said the opposite throughout. As noted in my post above I'd already analysed Poppy's more suspicious comments in my reads on post 107. Did you even read this post? Or did you ignore it and try to twist my words in a Scummy way???

HypersomniacLive has played quite a cryptic game. He analyses a few things others miss. Ask questions without making any accusations. It would be a good playing style for a Scum player because he doesn't upset anyone. Doesn't get into any back and forths. He just stands back looking busy but not really commiting to any lynch party. He hasn't said anything Scummy at all but it would be a good style to not attract attention if in fact he is Scum.

4 scum players who are on your wagon in a coordinated fashion in a game which has a maximal scum faction size of 3... yea, right. I'll re-iterate a suggestion that you have gotten before: read the setup!

Yes. I can answer that. I actually already did: I'm cutting you less slack than in the last game because you had time to learn. You even made a point of improving your game at the end of the last game. So I'm not treating you as an absolute newbie anymore and I expect better explanations from you. Also in the last game I was trying to pull you to my side by being intentionally understanding and helpful. I wanted to make you trust me and I wanted to make you mis-vote. Which succeeded. Was that mean? Yes. But as scum one has to pull all tricks to survive and buddying up to a townie who is under suspicion from others is one of the standard tricks. This time I don't know whether you're scum or town, but I wonder whether you coming to Poppy's help was support for a scum-buddy or whether you adopted the very trick I used against you in the last game. I.e. buddying up to a towny, (if Poppytek is a towny after all).

Also your reason for voting Poppy boiled down to 'I'm not sure'. That's not enough as a reason on it's own. Yes, as town one can never be sure. But you should at least have some reason to assume that your target has a higher chance of being scum than the others. Otherwise the entire game boils down to random voting. Not fun. And you weren't attacked for the reason you just quoted and bolded, but for the reason you gave with your actual vote and which you now conveniently omitted.
Here you basically say (re-phrased, to make it clearer why it looks strange): 'I don't know her alignment so I might as well vote her, since there is already a wagon.' ... This reads very arbitrary, is applicable to any player (so nothing specific to her) and suggests that you vote for any wagon as long as it isn't on you.

If that was poor wording on your part which led to a misunderstanding, please clear it up. Let's turn the usual 'who is your preferred target' question around: are there any players which you definitely wouldn't lynch today? And if yes, then who and why?

I've only skimmed the thread to check the vote count and update my own, and would like to say the following before I catch up from where I was last on:

The Vitek wagon is stuck with Dessimu's vote on it, who may well not come back in time to reaffirm or change his vote, nor share anything that will allow us to read him for that vote. As things are, it effectively makes Vitek lynchable with one vote less than anyone and everyone else. If Vitek's town, scum can, and likely will take advantage of the situation.

With that in mind, his wagon went from 2 to 4 votes rather fast which makes me squint a bit at those last two votes on him.

Thoughts?


Off to catch up.

Vitek’s wagon is the perfect place for scum to hide if Vitek is town. Poppy was under a lot of suspicion and that makes Vitek a viable lynch for several people to try and clear things up, scum voting him can just blame Poppy’s behavior to lynch Vitek. I don’t think Poppy/Vitek is scum, when Poppy was in the game she gave me Town vibes after the pressure she was under with the responses she gave and since Vitek has subbed in nothing has changed my view of them being Town.

I also noticed when bookwyrm voted Vitek he left himself an out to remove the vote, made me wonder if it was in case the wagon didn’t gain any traction he could say “after reconsidering things I don’t think Vitek is a good lynch today so let me move my vote to xxxxx”