Forgot to mention that I have a family thing tomorrow afternoon onwards, so won't be on till late (my timezone), perhaps not at all.

Will try to get back on later tonight.

I'm not a nazi! I'm a british officer!
Yes I see your point.


Huh. I was expecting Hypersomnia to be going for me and gogtrial too, I'd got it in mind that he was setting up bookwyrm as a mislynch yesterday, and was keeping us alive as a back-up mislynch if gogtrial wasn't flying. I remember him mentioning a few times that he's expecting us to be dead tomorrow... I'm not sure what to make of him defending us now.

My initial reaction to his list of votes for him as-predictedby-bookwyrm was to think "so you kept us alive because we'd likely vote for you, so you could point out that we' likely vote for you, and convince us to not vote for you!"...
but surely that's too complicated?...

I need to think about this...


Bookwyrm - I don't think he can be trent's buddy as his vote secured trent's lynch
Hypersomnia - Sure that Bookwyrm is trent's buddy because his vote was the perfect busstime
Sprimal - unlikely to have been scene's buddy. Didn't vote for trent. Probably deep-cover serial killer
Vitek - dear, sweet vitek. (I would follow that up with an immeiate vote vitek but it seems a bit perilous to be flinging votes willy-nilly.)
gotrial - <3
Joe - deputy useless

Tentative end of day is Wednesday evening/afternoon Europe, afternoon/late morning Americas.

FWIW, here's updated wagons, for staring at and trying to derive meaning from:

D1 scene [scum] wagon at L-1: JoeSapphire [?/town], gogtrial [?/town], trent [scum], Lifthrasil [town], dedoporno [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?]
D1 scene [scum] wagon at End of Day: JoeSapphire [?/town], gogtrial [?/town], Lifthrasil [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?], flub [town], Bookwyrm [?]
D2 scene [scum] wagon at End of Day: mchack [town], trent [scum], Lifthrasil [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?], Ixam [town], flub [town], Bookwyrm [?]

D3 mchack [town] wagon at L-1: Ixam [town], flub [town], Bookwyrm [?], trent [scum], gogtrial [?/town]
D3 Joe [?/town] wagon at L-1: Vitek [?], HSL [?], mchack [town], flub [town], trent [scum]
D3 Ixam [town] wagon: mchack [town], gogtrial [?/town], HSL [?], trent [scum], flub [town], SPF [?/non-mafia?]

D4 trent [scum] wagon: gogtrial [?/town], Joe [?/town], Bookwyrm [?], HSL [?], flub [town]


When you have time for more of a reaction, I'd still like answers to the questions I asked you in #1011

What are the thoughts from the both of you about trent+Vitek being possible as buddying mafia buddies?

Please tell me you did so during the night. If you did that in the ~three hours between start of day and your post, I'm going to cry. Looking at those connections took me several days. (Well, okay, I had twice as many to look at, but still.)

You don't consider any of Poppy's posts to have been buddying to trent either? Or did you not take Poppy's posts into account? If so, why not?

On mobile, so I'm not going to do anything fancy right now like quote people.

---

I'm among those expecting a pair of Trent-flip-confirmed brothers to be dead by dawn. Flub was the obvious other choice, since Mafia absolutely couldn't kill any of the rest of us with all these confirmed town running around. There'd just be no place left to hide.

Possible reasons for Flub kill:
-Mafia doesn't know if there is another protective role. As already stated, the brothers were the obvious protection choice.
-Controlling the votes. The brothers have expressed more doubt about me than Flub did, and Flub at one point agreed with my Trent/HSL possibility.

Anyway, I see HSL is still running on a Wyrm-Is-Mafia platform, but still hasn't cast the vote. I'm not nearly so shy.
Vote HSL

I'll have more to say later, when I'm using a reasonable platform for replies.

That's yesterday! Why are you so cruel?!

I wanted to see who wil be the first to come forth with T/M lovers first and in what manner.
I can think of 2 reasons why they could be left alive (one quite a bit more convincing than the other) with 3rd being one of them indeed is mafia and wouldn't kill himself. I still think it was not the best choice.

Well, yes. I would like to see some fake claim and I think he could fight harder to survive.

In short, trial asked me what posts of BW I liked from D4, I went to show them and couldn't find anything that I can't actually find out what was it that made me like him on D4 and why it made me feel better about him. I was tired and decided to sleep on it but lynch happened over night and in the morning the feeling I was likely wrong before stuck and so I moved Wyrm up to the first spot.

I felt he works as mafia with either of you (the people I have on my shortlist) and the same way I felt like his flip won't make anyone more towny. Well, it was quite silly thinking about it, as if he flipped town it would make both you and Wyrm most likely mafia, so of course it wouldn't make my suspects more towny. D'oh.

Don't follow where the leap in logic is. I put down my full thought process in post #1006; it starts at about the middle of it with "So, trentonlf's playing to his post #877: " onwards.

As for predicting trentonlf's alignment, I said why I'm confident he's mafia in my posts #1006 and #1015. I was asleep when trentonlf made his post #1018, else I'd have replied to him with what I did today, as that's also a typical caught scum!trentonlf post, both content and tone wise. I had signs that he could be (post #978), but wasn't sure until I saw his reaction to gogtrial34987's arguments and vote.

So no, no prediction and leaps in logic, just putting all the pieces together, and seeing to which side the whole picture points. That's, of course, my reading, but I reference posts so that others can see for themselves if things read the same. If not, I expect people to say so, but also why they don't.


Since you remember me mentioning it a few times, could you point out those few times I did? Preferably with post numbers?



*chuckles*

No, I did them over the days that N4 lasted, and noted down the post numbers in my game #55 text file. I'm doing the latter since the beginning of the game, so I can check again relatively quickly.


Argh, I forgot to do a trentonlf+PoppyAppletree ISO, hence no mention of her at all. I'll do it on Saturday (time's too tight tomorrow), and get back on this.

Seeing that you're asking about a trentonlf+Vitek mafia-pair buddying each other (and no opinion of yours about Bookwyrm627), should I assume that you reconsidered the trentonlf+Vitek case? If so, why?
And I'd like a reply to my comment from post #948 about Bookwyrm627 (starting in your post #723).


I think there's value in taking the D1 PoppyAppletree/Vitek wagon into account as well. And not just at EoD1, but other points during that Day (I do that for all wagons, actually, to see what vote progression may tell). So, to follow your format, but with post numbers included (single number: vote, two numbers: unvote):

PoppyAppletree: Lifthrasil 8 [town], Dessimu 59 [town], trentonlf 73 [mafia]
PoppyAppletree: Lifthrasil 8 [town], Dessimu 59 [town], trentonlf 73/126 [mafia], flubbucket 114 [town], supplementscene 121 [mafia]
Vitek: Lifthrasil 8/165 [town], Dessimu 59 [town], trentonlf 73/126 [mafia], flubbucket 114/172 [town], supplementscene 121 [mafia]
Vitek: Lifthrasil 8/165 [town], Dessimu 59 [town], trentonlf 73/126 [mafia], flubbucket 114/172 [town], supplementscene 121/236 [mafia], Bookwyrm627 216 [?], SirPrimalform 227 [?/non-mafia?]

This looks a lot better in my spreadsheet, as it's colour-coded (blue for town, red for mafia, black for unknown).

So, supplementscene jumped on it while trentonlf was still on, and Bookwyrm627 and SirPrimalform after he got off but while supplementscene was still on (with Bookwyrm627 right behind him).



Any conclusions?


Am I to assume that you won't share what you've thought? If so, why not?


Did you read my thoughts on this? What do you think?


Elaborate?


There's not much wiggle room for false-claims at this point in the game, is there?


This is like the second time you can't find what makes you read someone in one way or the other, third if I count your very early read on JoeSapphire.


And I see that Bookwyrm627 plays the victim card, on top of shading me; should have thought that one of the motives and goals to go for flubbucket was to try and make me look bad. I see I was right about the controlling the votes for the mislynch part, just didn't account for the use of reverse psychology to get there; dang, you're good, Bookwyrm627. Difference is that town can still win after my mislynch Today, while you and your team lose if we correctly lynch you.

Replies/comments to posts from EOD while I was away.
---

"I want your opinions agreeing with me on the table because either me or my buddy are going to kill you tonight once one of us gets lynched and confirms you and Joe as town"

Can I hire you to be my Public Relations manager?

I am the greatest of masterminds. I had enough foresight to realize that everyone would leave Supplement at L-1 without me showing up much at all on D2, and I also pre-arranged a signal for Trent to tell me when he spotted a PR so I could hammer Supplement and end the Day early. Seriously, you guys should just give up now because you're never going to figure out I'm the one pulling all the strings.

The hammer timing obviously couldn't have simply been because I was absent and that I hammered as soon as I returned and saw hard evidence of a scum lie. That wouldn't be nearly devious enough on my part.

[PPE: Glad you're still alive! Now I can reply without feeling like I have all the conversational advantage to get the last word.]

Considering I'm pretty firmly on the "HSL is scum" train? Yeah, I'm inclined to read them as coaching.

I'm not even talking about the "Read the rules!" posts that were directed as Supplement.

(Yes, avoiding absolutes is one of my habits. I'm enough of an pedant that making sweeping statements which ignore edge cases tends to make me a little crazy)

-----

Replies to posts from this Day.
---

Any reason to suspect this is actually the case?

Any reason to suspect there are actually 4 mafia?

It is irrelevant whether the lone scum was the roleblocker or not. In order to RB, they'd have to give up the kill. Unless you'd care to claim RB + Kill is a twist.

Would you care to claim this as a twist?

This is actually one of my three guesses for you surviving the night: you're more likely than Flub to vote the way the mafioso wants you to vote.

Especially if the mafioso is HSL, then he's already suffering from my vote and very likely SPF's vote. Based on Flub's recent behavior, Flub may join the wagon just to actively move the game toward ending, even if he doesn't necessarily suspect HSL. With 5 alive, that'd be the 3 votes needed to lynch HSL. Vitek's vote (or continued lack thereof) wouldn't even matter in that scenario.

Do you have any reason to suspect there are actually 4 mafia? Would you care to claim this as a twist?

Why would scum!me kill Flub?

He was already basically voting with me.

I might have had to press him a little once I got a mislynch wagon going, but I don't see why I'd have a harder time swaying Flub than I would swaying Gogtrial + Joe.

By your own logic, I should have killed Joe and Gogtrial, counting on Flub's repeated expressions of "Kill me now" to join me and SPF in mislynching you.

You, on the other hand, absolutely couldn't afford to kill Joe + Gogtrial (see above about 3/5 votes on you), but you also couldn't afford NOT to kill one of the locked town or you'd be out of places to hide.

You've got my respect, working as hard as you're working, but I don't envy you the situation you're stuck in right now.

*shrug* I focused on the part of his post below that I bolded. I filled in the bracketed part in the shortened version because I was willing to own up to being one of those getting after Scene to read the rules. I'll also freely admit that I didn't try to closely follow whatever arguments were being made about how much coaching you did/didn't do for Scene.
-----
-----

*shrug* Possible, I suppose. It would leave Vitek as the godfather, which doesn't disrupt that possible Lift breadcrumb from having investigated Poppy's slot on N1.

I still think HSL is the last one, considering how hard he's been working to set me up for a lynch.

Thanks, and same to you. :)

Anyway, I've got more teammates than you do, so I'm willing to Thunderdome you. If you win, I suggest trying to sway Vitek to help you vote SPF. I suppose if you've pocketed the Brothers enough, using them against Vitek or SPF would work too.

Question to HSL, Bookwyrm and I guess SPF as well:

Can you provide a reason why are you not mafia?


Does my reply to HSL suffice?

Yeah, I called BW for the coaching too, he has mostly te same problem but to lesser degree. With LIft I am not sure what you mean, the part where he yelled at scene to RTFM? IF yes, then I sfind that very different as it was sure feels like genuine frustrations and even if e haven't already flipped I think I'd see it as different.
With you I am honestly not aware something from your posts could be read that way.
And yeah, I think it is still valid although it is not what I find most problematic with HSL.

I personally have only little experience but I did cursory look at few previous games and in those he was town I felt that he, after asking some questions, led them to some conclusions and then pursued them and it felt different there than here.
Here it looks to me like the questions are asked for the sake of being asked and were not meant to catch mafia.

I'll consider this an answer to my first question from #1011. I'd still like the second one answered. pre-post-edit: Ah, I see it posted just now; thanks.

I'm trying to figure out if I can safely discount the trent+Vitek pairing with a similar confidence to how I've taken SPF out of the equation. I know that my mind left unchecked will manage to see any- and everything as a possible scum-sign, but if enough of you with lots of experience see something the same way (in this case, it just being extremely unlikely for two mafiosi to act like that), then I'm willing to provisionally go along with it. If we can ignore Vitek, then I figure we've basically won. Two days to lynch both you and Bookwyrm. (And yes, there still could be a SK, and yes, there might be 4 mafia with us at mylo, etc - but at some point you just have to go with the odds.)

Just so we're talking about the same thing, that's this next question, right? (If there's more things from #948 that you also want answers to, just let me know.)
My townread for Bookwyrm was basically for his overall contribution, so hard to point to specific references (I have a few below anyway, but that's reconstructed). He started off lurky, but once he got going, he just moved solidly into my town column. Somewhere in the 600s, I did a "who's left and what do I think of them" readslist for myself, and for Bookwyrm I wrote this: "strong town read, not on actions but on reads/contributions; a bit like Vitek, but more consistent over longer time." (The "600s" reference is approximate; I don't have any pointers to 600-range posts before that readslist; still trying to find what balance of note-taking works best for me, and think I undershot a bit during this game.)

Do note that I've been town-reading too many people all game long, and have been aware of that for a pretty long time, too. You might recall yesterday's shortlist of possible scum consisting of Bookwyrm, trent, Vitek and yourself, and that I had been town-reading all of you (though you came late to it). So, in another game, with other options, I wouldn't be voting Bookwyrm (or yourself, or Vitek) based on how I read things. In this game, I'll have to. Trent's flip shows that that's the right thing to do, and that my "surface" reads are worth much less than my then going with the odds based on analysis.

Specific references for posts which I remember as contributing to town-reading Bookwyrm:
#162 and #216 These are the main posts that took him off the menu for me on D1; when I was questioned about it, I realized it was pretty thin, but that's where it all started. I remember following the references and considering it a town mindset to point them out like that. (I however also remember wondering if I'd conflated the second post with mchack's readslist from right above it.)
#377 I'd expect mafia to be more wait-and-see, uncertain how town would be interpreting things; ref trent (and you?)
#552 Both the references early on, and particularly his explanation of what he found suspect in my #408. (I think this post also was the main one which offset his D2 day-ending behaviour to keep him town-lean.)

Does that give you a town feeling for Vitek?

Do you think my (relative) lack of then commenting on the things HSL wrote, is what saved me+Joe?

True, but I was thinking about mafia yesterday having strong benefit to have the last role outed, but that this became less "useful" with trent's lynch. (Yesterday they would've thought they could've blocked the role and NKed top-town; today they'd have to decide between NKing the role or top-town.)

Alas, no. My role PM rules it out as a possibility.

None, other than SPF bringing it up. And yes, he was hypothesizing me+Joe as the remaining two (which again is ruled out for me by my PM), but the general idea of it was one of those scary "what if?" scenario's that I don't want to immediately discount. (Like the nightmare trent + you team which I mentioned back when, which now seems to be a close to 50% possibility.) I'm moving on on the basis of the 3-mafia team which makes most sense, but if there's a slip or other indication that we could after all be dealing with that scenario, then I've at least done some thinking in that direction.

@SPF, @Vitek: what do you make of this argument?

@Bookwyrm: Would the same argument go for mafia-Vitek? Or would flub's vote on Vitek (from before moving to trent), make a significant difference?

I realized there might also partly be a language parsing thing at work here. "that certainty" was Bookwyrm's certainty that mchack's claim was a fakeclaim (not my certainty about Bookwyrm's townieness). I valued it due to townreading Bookwyrm, but it would still hold value even if I wasn't, as scum-Bookwyrm wouldn't be coming out with such a strongly worded post as #702 unless he actually saw things in the claim that didn't add up for him, and that he could explain if pushed on.

-I was willing to lynch Scene before his D1 claim, and I tried to finish him off after the claim, instead of just accepting his claim the way Dedo, Mchack, presumably HSL, you, and Trent all did, or even trying to move the lynch elsewhere. Town effectively accepting his claim on D1 bought Mafia another Day with a full team.

-I finished off Scene myself (before the deadline), instead of making Town do it.

-I moved to Trent's wagon (instead of yours), giving his lynch the push that killed him. When HSL's wagon wasn't moving, I could easily have moved to you instead of a scum buddy simply by 'reading' you as scummier than Trent.

-I've been pretty open with my reads, and I've been consistently voting from them.


I'm genuinely curious: which of my posts do you read as possibly coaching Scene? I told him to read the manual several times, and I pointed out how one of his scenarios was almost certainly wrong (or straight up mechanically wrong).

While I suppose it is possible, I don't recall ever giving him hints on how to play/act, unlike HSL.

Or this post from HSL.


No. You reading HSL as town and/or me as scum would have helped his case against me after you were dead, but going into N4 I was assuming you two would be the kill, with an off chance that Flub bit the dust. No one else was even a candidate, regardless of any PR suspicion, because killing any of the rest of us would leave too many lock-town votes in play.

Having done my alternate-scenario vote analysis for D5, I'm no longer surprised about you two surviving; you had to survive for HSL to even have a chance.

My nightmare scenario was you + Joe AND Flub dying N4, indicating we had an SK and a mafioso among the 4 players remaining (which would mean 2v1v1, and Town can no longer exclusively control the lynch).


How do you think a 4th mafia would have been inserted into the game? Was an SK rolled and then arbitrarily converted into a 4th mafia, giving mafia 33% of the player base instead of the standard 25% (and giving them an extra player while the setup specifies that mafia caps at 3) (and also giving them an extra player instead of a competing faction, AS WELL AS basically telling them that an SK was impossible)? Then, because town wasn't screwed enough, masons became mason lovers so that only one mislynch/NK could kill two townies? How many disadvantages were given to Town by twist(s)?

Speculating 4 mafia is nothing but a distraction at best, and an attempt at fearmongering and discord at worst.

By comparison, it isn't entirely unreasonable to speculate that Trent and I could be a team. You'd have to answer the question of why I pushed to get both of my teammates killed when I didn't have to, but the scenario isn't completely absurd.

A scum!Vitek would be better served by killing you two than Flub, but more to move us to a 5 player group than because he needs Flub's vote for the D5 mislynch. Scum!Vitek could reasonably count on my vote and SPF's vote, and then he can either finish town!HSL off or wait and see if Flub does it (leaving Vitek's hands 'clean'). After that, he probably tries to turn SPF against me, or he rolls the dice that Flub sides with him against me; I'm not sure Flub or I would buy that SPF was the last mafia instead of Vitek.

With you two alive, at least one of you have to vote before anyone gets lynched today, which probably means convincing you both.

Also, same question to you, Vitek.

I see.

I realize this is probably a very subjective thing, but if you could provide an example of such a question (bonuspoints if it's a question directed toward me), with your interpretation of how that particular distinction is in play there, I suspect I'd find that very helpful.

Huh.
I'm on record for finding the argument "silly". That was based on someone (?) providing a long list of quoted examples.
Just these two, in context... Yeah, I can see where the argument is coming from now.

It still doesn't fit with my image of HSL, but I might be prepared to admit that I could potentially be wrong there.

Those are strong words.

But you're not wrong.

I concluded myself that it's extremely unlikely for such a scenario to make any kind of sense, and we shouldn't give it any credence with proceeding. But all the same I referred to it several times, which was giving it credence anyway. That's bad play; I guess I was somehow feeling I should be defending pre-emptively, while what I should've been doing was to sit back and see if anyone tried to take up that line of reasoning beyond SPF's initial mention. (And yeah, I could claim here that I was providing more hooks for something like that, and that you ruined it - but no, I wasn't that together.)

There were zero votes and relatively little suspicion on trent at the points where he put SPF into the pool ( #888 e.a.). His pool was too small, though, so he kinda needed to. Still, mafia-SPF was in a much safer position than trent, so I'm seeing this as extra confirmation that SPF is non-mafia.

I think I was thinking of Vitek in #843.