I replied because you said "Basically I was ready to treat them as confirmed but now I'm not so sure." (underlining mine).

In any event, if we're agreed that this isn't worth any further consideration, then we'll let it drop.

I stand by that. I had them as 100% confirmed but it's dropped to like... 99% because of the slim possibility. I'm keeping it in the back of my mind, but yes I agree that there's nothing more to discuss.

You say "still". Did you share this suspicion before? (Any references or rough pointers as to when?)
If the reference doesn't answer this: What particular things about him pinged you to lead to that suspicion?
(Is it an actual suspicion, or should I interpret your sentence as "I think he's town, but if he's anti-town, then probably SK rather than mafia - although I don't see anything to really rule him out for being mafia either"?)

My argument ( #984) - and that of HSL ( #1036) - was that the way trent buddied him, makes Vitek unlikely to be mafia. I'd specifically like your explicit view on that buddying (also taking Poppy into account). Do you see that (back and forth?) behaviour as quite possible for them as mafia-pair, or unlikely to such a degree that we can take the gamble on ignoring Vitek as mafia, much in the same way as we're ignoring you as mafia?

I also posted this question to you at the bottom of #1046 that you seem to have missed:
Same question for you.

KAPOW

Of the 3 that I think might be mafia, Vitek seems the weakest possibility of being mafia but the strongest possibility of being SK.

I think it's a reasonable argument, and one of the reasons Vitek is in third place for me. I don't know if it's enough to completely discount him but it's certainly in his favour.

Ah yes, I did miss that because I was mostly looking for quotes last night, sorry.

Bookwyrm makes a bit of sense there but it's kind of weak, it doesn't really move him down the ranking.

From what's already in the game thread?

- No semi-competent and relatively experienced mafia would link themselves the way you (general) have been going on about, let alone as early as the start of the game. One instance may have been a mistake scum!me made, what you guys have been claiming? No.
- I've been scum-hunting and trying to solve the game, and have supported my reads on people in detail with quoted posts and references.
- trentonlf's avoidance to give a read on me in his arguments about his choice of scum-pair; when pressed by gogtrial34987, the most he uttered was a gut feeling I'm not scum which he promptly muddied in the same post with that comment about liars and deceivers (I actually read that as his last assist to his scum-buddy for D5).

Of course you're reading none of this as true. *shrug*


Is it always strictly about the numbers, and the shortest way to victory?



I'm inclined to start thinking that the concept of reading people based on their posts and actions/reactions/interactions eludes you, unless it's of the "interpolating" variety, if this is all you take away from the content I've pointed you at.

And you've still not said where you saw a leap in logic. Or are you retracting that?


There was no need to include the disclaimer; I'd be utterly surprised if you'd actually gone looking for specific posts yourself. Anyway.

So, these few times are actually two? Here, let me help the two of you out, you missed one; I made a similar comment in post #1006. Anyway.

You expected me to go after the Siblings Today, because I said I think that you'd be dead come D5. And to support that, gogtrial34987 goes and digs up a comment in a post I made something like 10ds ago, i.e. at a time when I was trying to see if the claim makes sense as true, and quite before I pieced things together regarding trentonlf, apparently I've done nothing after post #925, or if I did it's of no matter except for that specific line in post #1004. So you expected me to be gunning for your lynch now. After trentonlf flipped mafia.

Talking about leap in logic.

Unless your argument is that when everyone else says they thought you guys wouldn't be still alive Today, it's a town thing or NAI, but when I said it, it was more likely coming from a scum mindset. Is that it?
Seriously, if the two of you are going to scum-read everything I say or do, with no context whatsoever, just vote and lynch me already.

I still don't see the trentonlf+Vitek pair. I've done the trentonlf+PoppyAppletree ISO, and the only posts of her that could be considered as buddying up, but only I stay on the surface read and squint pretty hard, are posts #119 and #128. The feeling I'm getting from their interactions is that trentonlf cleverly read what works on PoppyAppletree, possibly even since game #53, and fed it into his interactions with her; I think that jumping on her in post #73 to then get off her in post #126 with the reasons he gave for both voting and unvoting her, was key for PoppyAppletree swalling it hook, line and sinker (no offence to PoppyAppletree, this was still very early game, and scum!trentonlf can be very convincing passing as his town-self). I think that,hadn't PoppyAppletree subbed out, she'd have been sitting in his pocket even at EoD4, and the fact that she did sub out messed with trentonlf's plans.

I think their interactions are more indicative of a one sided act, i.e. trentonlf buddying up to her via subtle manipulation and PoppyAppletree genuinely falling for it, than it being a coordinated act between two scum-buddies. Granted, I have no baseline for scum!PoppyAppletree, but I just don't feel it. Note post #103, it's very very subtle, but with the hindsight of his flip, it seems like a gentle nudge to give him something to get off her wagon, and on to supplementscene's one. Given that both PoppyAppletree and supplementscene were pretty wordy, posts #119 and #121 gave him what he was looking for.

I said that one reason I don't see this pair is that it'd mean that there was no bussing on D1; I still don't believe there was none. Another reason is that trentonlf would have had his scum-buddy as his strongest town-read basically since D1 and all game long; he's a fine scum player, but I don't think he's ballsy enough to make that play, even if he's buddy was doing a good job at blending in well, and being mostly town-read. He's a lot more comfortable playing the distancing game, until someone takes a good close look, or he's left in a narrow PoE; that's one aspect of scum!trentonlf's play that hasn't changed, and which, additionally to everything else I've said, points to Bookwyrm627 as his buddy, imo.


Take a look around you. Do you see anyone else besides me taking a firm stance on this? SirPrimalform's still stuck in his "everyone off wagon on D1 is suspect" because, apparently, "a scum hiding among the townies off wagon" is unthinkable, though I see that now that we have two mafia flips, he's promoted (or is it demoted?) him to SK again. A read he had since early game based on PoppyAppletree, and to which he returns now without taking into account that SK!Vitek had basically no incentive to stay off the supplementscene wagon D1; if there's anyone that the saying "any lynch is a good lynch" it's the SK, more so since being on the wagon of a flipped mafia would earn him some town cred, and make his life easier.
And Bookwyrm627 is keeping his options open, so that, should I be mislynced Today, he can finish him off with the support of SirPrimalform or yours, on his way to the mafia victory - his comment on scum!Vitek in post #1048 suggests that he'll make his final decision on the N5 NK after he has a better picture where everyone still alive stand; confirming the one player (SirPrimalform) nobody's seriously scum-reading, while keeping in mind the SK as an edge case at this point in the game, is a small price if he can exploit your insecurity/fear about Vitek being scum after all. Also notice how in all his arguments you (the Siblings) being alive always points exclusively and strictly to me as the remaining mafia, some times directly, some times subtly disguised behind arguments of why the contrary would better serve an alternate suspect.

[emphasis added]

How confident are you that, should I be mislynched Today and the Siblings NK'd N5, the remaining townies will lynch Bookwyrm627? Do you have any indication that SirPrimalform is town-reading Vitek?


It does; it doesn't change my read on him in regards to being trentonlf's buddy, and I never put (much) stock in SirPrimalform's arguments about PoppyAppletree being the SK, and at this point in the game, I'd be quite surprised if there is one. Putting the flipped townies aside, I've already said how trentonlf's vote/unvote reads, supplementscene's vote is more or less in the same vein as his vote on SirPrimalform, SirPrimalform's vote was for thinking he could be the SK, and none of Boowkyrm627's reasons for this vote of his ring as genuine scum-hunting to me.

trentonlf and Bookwyrm627 voting the same player, but not at the same time, seems to have been a pattern on D1. Being extra cautious not to create any links between them from wagon analysis before they got a chance to talk N1? Quite possible, even quite likely imo.


And now that I remembered it again:

I asked you in post #1015 to point to all the wagons I allegedly supported when they started to gain traction, as this statement is a very big misrepresentation of my actions.

No, there was no misunderstanding on whose certainty you were talking about, and that's exactly what I find puzzling in your read there. Let's look at the two cases:
- Assume Bookwyrm627's town. He cannot be that certain that it was a false-claim based on the reasons he gave. Which were things that had been discussed to no end already. Further down in post #707 he says he's not read most of the last page or so, yet is still certain that mchack's false-claiming, because "It just doesn't gel for me" (post #709).
Remember that in post #355 he white-washed supplementscene's inability to answer flubucket's question about self-protection blaming GOG's mobile chat, the same FUBAR GOG mobile chat that supplementscene used to probably make the honest mistake of copying his PM (post #349). Yet, mchack's circumstances at the time had no weight for Bookwyrm627, even though he's been bringing up his own circumstances in the physical world as reason for always being (very) late each Day, and never caught up. Because, apparently, if mchack was indeed the Doctor, town!Bookwyrm627 expected him to have memorised his role PM as soon as he got it, and hence would be able, at any moment and under any circumstances, in the blink of an eye, to do a word by word comparison of his PM and supplementscene's claim that was scattered over multiple posts. I will assume that you never linked all these in your reads of him. If you do it now, do things still sound like coming from a town-mindset?

- Assume Bookwyrm627's mafia. I seriously don't follow what value does such a strong worded post on the basis of "he saw things that didn't add up for him" because he'd be able to "explain if pushed" hold. Do you consider Bookwyrm627 a good mafia player? If so, do you think he'd push for a mislynch on reasons he'd not be able to explain? Just look at the short essay he wrote to convince Vitek that that "instead of making Town do it" from post #1048 (which I consider as a Freudian slip) is coming from a town mindset, when brushing it off with a snort didn't work.
But let's put that aside for a moment, and let's look at his reasons. Do you think that they'd be hard to explain even by a semi-competent/semi-experienced player? If so, why?

You could perhaps argue that SirPrimalform didn't believe mchack either (he said so somewhere), but I'm chalking that up to his overall surface reading of the thread due to his laziness.


[emphasis added]

Which reads would that be, besides his certainty that mchack was false-claiming?
- The too easy too obvious Vitek+supplementscene scum-pair because of TMI on D1?
- His scum-read on Lifthrasil on D1, which didn't even take into account his butting heads with PoppyAppletree?
- SirPrimalform being pocketed by PoppyAppletree even though he doesn't know either one well enough?
- The mchack+HSL+supplementscene mafia team on D3, in spite all three of us not only being on SirPrimalformm but also the only ones at EoD1?

As for contributions, could you do an ISO on him, and point a few things he contributed/pointed out that hadn't already been pointed out/mentioned/discussed before he did?

- Post #162: What about it? Do you see anything in it that isn't stating the obvious, or/and hadn't already been mentioned/commented on?
- Post #216: Same as above.
- Post #377: By your own argument, how does mafia better conceal the fact that they know it's their scum-buddy, and blend in, at the point that it's almost certain that said scum-buddy won't be lynched D1 (less than a minute before deadline), but will most likely be again up for lynch D2? Now, trentonlf took the "wait and see" approach, and flipped mafia, but he made sure to be seen doing it for reasons perfectly inline with town!trentonlf. If Bookwyrm627 had done the same, would he have stood out to you or not?
- Post #552: You are (and were) aware that this is after supplementscene flipped, yes? Besides, referencing things that had already been mentioned and commenting/questioning things that had already been questioned, not to mention that he even replied to Lifthrasil's post #499 who was lying in pieces in the crater that was once his tent, you never once wondered if all this referencing you value(d) was done because he had noticed your reaction in post #273? I can only assume that his explanation of what he found suspect in your post #408 outweighed everything, in spite having to drag it out of him with your "you're giving yourself a lot of leeway for finding something scummy in that post at a later point".

But let me ask you this: after your post #984, Bookwyrm627 has been consistently responding to posts, multi-quotes and everything. Today in particular, he's been here since the start of the Day, being very proactive, responding to practically each and every post, again with multi-quotes and everything, even returning to posts before ones he had already replied to/commented on (he's been dissecting my every post from EoD4 onwards). No more references with short comments on them, and the occasional quote-reply. What do you make of that? He pointed out a change in my D2 from asking questions to making a statement as notable, and the lack of comments on it may suggest that you (general) thought it was. Either way, is his change notable? And if it is, why do you think the change happened, and what does it mean?


You said in post #1003 that you wanted to check the references in my reads. Did you do that? Since you've decided to go with the odds based on analysis (of what exactly?), and don't put (much?) stock in reads, what are you looking for in others' reads and references, and based on what are you going to interpret/judge them?

I may have a follow up question here after you reply.

And one more question; Bookwyrm627 says at the very bottom in post #1044 that "I'm good" in response to my own comment on his play of N4/D5. Does that ring sincere to you, i.e. do you think he actually means it? If so, why? If not, why not? There may also be a follow up question here.


SirPrimalform makes a rather flippant comment on the mafia having 4 members, right after musing on the Tragic Lovers scenario.

You follow with comments on both.

Then comes Bookwyrm627 questioning the both of you, but the questions directed at you are pointed.

You then reply to him in post #1046 with a reasonable response. Yet he returns to give you a lesson on mafia theory, and to waggle his finger that such speculation is a distraction at best, and an attempt at fearmongering and discord at worst. You tell him he's not wrong, and concede to have made a bad play.

What do you think was the motive and goal of all this?

Bookwyrm, what's your time zone? Vitek? The rest I think I know...

Preface: Let's assume town-HSL.

Now, from the perspective of the non-scum rest of us, our likely options for today:
1) We lynch scum-Bookwyrm. We win. \o/ (modulo SK, etc yadda-yadda)
2) We lynch scum-HSL. We win. \o/ [not an option given our starting assumption, but the rest of us don't know that]
3) We lynch town-Bookwyrm. Tomorrow, town-HSL will be in the impossible situation to convince SPF (or hell, me+Joe again) that it's scum-Vitek after all, given confirmed town-Bookwyrm's conviction that HSL is scum. We lose. /o\
4) We lynch town-HSL. Tomorrow, SPF (or...) will have confirmed town-HSL's conviction that Bookwyrm is scum, and on Vitek being unlikely to be mafia. He'll have to still make up his own mind, but I'd give him very good odds of choosing wisely. We win. \o/ (Except if it's Vitek after all.)

--

Not #88 or #96? If they're actual buddies, the buddying performance isn't for the benefit of each other, but for that of the rest of us.

I'm not so certain about that. Vitek had trent consistently as least preferred lynch (#886, #1007), and even in #1024 he still thought trent would flip town. That came from somewhere, and I think it was those early trent-Poppy interactions that carry much of the "blame".

Indeed. Out of you, Bookwyrm and SPF, you're the only one strongly following my initial interpretation of trent+Vitek. One or two town-players aren't seeing it like that.

Besides post #1070? (No, it's not a town-read, but it's probably good enough for this purpose.)

I'm going to stop this thread of conversation here. I was hoping you were asking about how I came to my town-read of Bookwyrm, back when, in order to follow along and take a fresh look to get out of your tunnel. You probably would've still arrived the same conclusion - but I was hoping for any sign of considering how things look like to me. Instead you are now trying to use it as yet another attempt to convince me why Bookwyrm is scum.

I "naturally" town-read both you and Bookwyrm and Vitek. You and Bookwyrm and Vitek can't all be town (well, you could, but that's why I repeatedly questioned everyone on Vitek's argument for why SPF can't be mafia - and I'm going to keep on trusting in that). So, I need to accept that one of my town-reads is wrong. And then there's enough words written by honest men (most of them happily pointed out by all of you) that I can hang each of you three times over. Each of you could be scum playing well; I don't need more pointers to convince me of that.

Okay, one more
That we're in the end game, and you turned up the heat on him? Given #889, and many short posts after #984, I'm not so much seeing this alleged shift. If it's there, then if anything, your #985 would've been the trigger more than my #984.

Now, now, that would be telling.
I have given plenty of hints throughout this thread on how to get on my good side. What I've seen is Bookwyrm (mostly) appearing to be doing his own thing, trying to make up his own mind. And I've also seen you acknowledging those hints, and playing for me.
(I could re-interpret either of your behaviours as the exact opposite of that, and I could also see either of your behaviours, if recognized correctly, as coming from either alignment. But I choose to interpret them like this, because I find that interpretation marginally more likely.)


So, out of the mix of reasons which have gone into my big boiling cauldron of trying to solve the game (contributed by many players), here's the one which both stuck between my teeth (the cauldron also mixes metaphors) and hasn't been mentioned before:
Mafia is a team game. We win by working together, by trusting in the combined power of many town players reading things independently, coming to correct conclusions.
I don't see any trust in you for other players. You don't seem to believe that anyone has your back. Instead, you're consistently predicting the worst possible outcome from your fellow players, and voicing those in apparent attempts to sway them to do things differently. Sure, you've been under pressure consistently through a large part of the game (and I realize you've had some tough real life happenings to deal with, and sincerely hope those aren't a cause here) - but to me this attitude feels anti-town.

vote HSL

Additional 'new' contributing factors:
* Your read of trent in #978, prevaricating, but putting him far behind Vitek, and then switching the two of them about once Joe and Bookwyrm joined me on the wagon, but still keeping Bookwyrm firmly in first place.
* The way you appealed to my pride by "your post #984 was quite the help on getting there" in #1004.

@Vitek, @SPF: When I voted trent, I was feeling hesitant, but pretty good about the vote. Here, I'm much less certain. If in all the arguments that have been made, either of you see something that points significantly more toward Bookwyrm than toward HSL, I'm probably willing to switch. I know Joe has been town-reading Bookwyrm due to his behaviour yesterday, so not certain if there's actually a viable lynch there - but it might be worth a shot.

I'm EST. We're still in daylight savings, in case it makes a difference.

Thanks. I asked to see what time End of Day would suit everyo...

Eh, who am I kidding. I asked just to post something so the thread doesn't die of boredom.

o_O

damn...

'¬_¬

why do I trust you?

the leap in logic was going from thinking-bookwyrm-was-bussing-trent to defining-trent-as-mafia. When you mentioned trent's post it seemed less of a leap.

1 - because you know that I don't have regular access to a computer so my time for the game is very limited.
2 - two is a few, three is also a few. Why were you fussing about it in the first place if the statement was correct?

You've misunderstood me. After reading the end of Day 4, I was reading you as trent's buddy: hypothetically, you bussed trent after making a big scene about how mchack was bussing trent, and throughout day 4 you'd been setting us up as a viable miss-lynch by sowing the seeds that we should be dead Day 5. Having thought about it more recently, it's not very subtle. BUT my point was that you defied my expectations, so I wasn't sure what to think. I'm still not.
However. your challenge is very tempting, even though little bro has taken you up on it already...

Vote count

HSL - 2: Bookwyrm, gogtrial

Not voting - 4: HSL, Joe, SPF, Vitek

6 players. 4 to lynch.

I just read through gogtrial34987's post #1075. I'm too frustrated with myself right now, and need to step back and think things over when my head's clearer; you know something has gone really wrong when your teammate reads everything you say the opposite way you mean them and concludes, even if with a little bit of uncertainty, that you're mafia.

See you all tomorrow evening.

Still alive.